Tillman

[Sports Guy]

Lots of talk about him here lately...Let's look back at his season of last year, both minors and majors:

AAA:

-18 starts

-96.2 IP

-7 of his last 8 starts went 6 IP or more

-9.22 K rate

-2.42 K rate

-3.8:1 K/bb ratio

-.46 HR rate

-gave up less than a hit per IP

MLB:

-12 starts

-6 of his twelve starts went 6 or more IP

-He had another 4 starts where he went at least 5 IP

-Only his first start(4.2 IP) and his last start(2 IP) did he fail to at least go 5

-BB rate was 3.32...Not too bad

- K rate was 5.4...definitely below average

- HR rate was awful..averaged 2 per 9 IP but 6 were in 2 starts, including 3 in big league debut

I don't see how this adds up to needing more AAA time...He was poised...Showed good stuff, albeit inconsistent command but he was 21 years old. He looked like he belonged there. He had some bad peripherals, like Olson and Penn did but he never looked shell shocked either. He never seemed to get down on himself.

There is nothing he can do in AAA...It makes no sense to send him there unless he is hurt or just looks so out of whack in ST that you have to send him back.

Other than that, he should be here and he shouldn't have to fight tooth and nail for the job either.

And, on top of that, he shouldn't have to wait for his turn for a few months(at least) because the Orioles felt they needed another vet starter.

[SteveA]

Edit: this was addressed specifically to SportsGuy's post before it. I neglected to quote him, which could leave you wondering who the "you" I refer to in the message is.

I agree that he doesn't HAVE to be sent there.

I agree that we don't have to go out and get another veteran starter, although I also realize that it would be real nice to go into the season with MORE than 5 legitimate options to start, for once. Someone always gets hurt in spring training, so a lot of this hand-wringing is probably for nothing anyway.

However, I don't think it would hurt him if he spent part of the season there. He's still only 21. For every Porcello you can name, I can name a Homer Bailey who was rushed to the majors, got hit around young, and now has spent the better part of 3 years yo-yoing between AAA and the majors.

It's not an exact science, but it's certainly not unusal to say that a guy who has had 4 months total at AAA, and done very well, go back for a little more seasoning. The tone of your posts -- and correct me if I am reading the wrong tone into the written word -- are that it would be some sort of monumental disaster to do so. Maybe it's just the frequency of your posts on the subject that lead me to believe you think it's a HUGE mistake.

Like I said, I'm not in favor of it. If I were to pick a starting 5 right now, Tillman would certainly be in it. I just don't think basically making him the #6 starter and as soon as ANY of the 5 initial starters gets hurt, which is likely in March but almost undoubtedly by June, he comes up -- I just don't think there are huge negative consequences to doing that.

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

Good post. He definitely looked poised and he most certainly has the stuff. He has dominated AAA.

He just needs to locate better and that is something that he'll either grow into or not. Going to AAA will not really help clarify anything.

[backwardsk]

There's been the talk today (Washburn/Wang) of bringing in a veteran pitcher. I think a prudent move IF they guy is signed to a minor league deal. (It won't be Washburn, and I doubt that it would be Wang) If one of the five likely starters gets hurt or delayed in ST, plug in the vet.

Yes, Tillman should be here Opening Day. If there are no injuries, I'd be shocked if he wasn't.

Now, my question is: Where will Tillman be in the 2012 rotation? Will he head the rotation, or will guys like Matusz, Arietta, Britton, and Erbe be ahead of him? That's called a good problem.

[crowmst3k!]

Unless he's going back to AAA to work on controlling a new pitch (His cutter), it's an unnecessary step.

He has MLB stuff, he just needs to locate that fastball low.

[tropicos]

JW, has AM or Trembley been quoted talking about the possibility of Tillman starting the year in AAA? Or is this just all speculation based on reports that the O's have interest in some FA pitchers?

[byrdz]

Edit: this was addressed specifically to SportsGuy's post before it. I neglected to quote him, which could leave you wondering who the "you" I refer to in the message is.

I agree that he doesn't HAVE to be sent there.

I agree that we don't have to go out and get another veteran starter, although I also realize that it would be real nice to go into the season with MORE than 5 legitimate options to start, for once. Someone always gets hurt in spring training, so a lot of this hand-wringing is probably for nothing anyway.

However, I don't think it would hurt him if he spent part of the season there. He's still only 21. For every Porcello you can name, I can name a Homer Bailey who was rushed to the majors, got hit around young, and now has spent the better part of 3 years yo-yoing between AAA and the majors.

It's not an exact science, but it's certainly not unusal to say that a guy who has had 4 months total at AAA, and done very well, go back for a little more seasoning. The tone of your posts -- and correct me if I am reading the wrong tone into the written word -- are that it would be some sort of monumental disaster to do so. Maybe it's just the frequency of your posts on the subject that lead me to believe you think it's a HUGE mistake.

Like I said, I'm not in favor of it. If I were to pick a starting 5 right now, Tillman would certainly be in it. I just don't think basically making him the #6 starter and as soon as ANY of the 5 initial starters gets hurt, which is likely in March but almost undoubtedly by June, he comes up -- I just don't think there are huge negative consequences to doing that.

Agreed, if the team sees fit to send him to AAA to work on some things, it's not as detrimental as the OP is making it out to be. Wouldn't be the first time that it happened and worked out for the best.

That said, I don't think it's going to happen. Who realistically is going to take it over him. DH maybe but beyond that I don't see a ton of competition for him. Although, there's something to be said for competing for spots, rather than them being handed out.

[chamdog]

DT is trying to compete with the yanks and the sucks If they belive Washburn or Wang gives them a better chance to win then Tillman, send him down and let him improve.If you go into the season wanting to develop young pitching you have litte chance to no chance to compete.Yes Tillman did show signs that he is ready but not to the point were it should garantee him a spot on the rotation.Is there hope he can compete absolutly it's Feb.

[Guest rochester]

Lots of talk about him here lately...Let's look back at his season of last year, both minors and majors:

AAA:

-18 starts

-96.2 IP

-7 of his last 8 starts went 6 IP or more

-9.22 K rate

-2.42 K rate

-3.8:1 K/bb ratio

-.46 HR rate

-gave up less than a hit per IP

MLB:

-12 starts

-6 of his twelve starts went 6 or more IP

-He had another 4 starts where he went at least 5 IP

-Only his first start(4.2 IP) and his last start(2 IP) did he fail to at least go 5

-BB rate was 3.32...Not too bad

- K rate was 5.4...definitely below average

- HR rate was awful..averaged 2 per 9 IP but 6 were in 2 starts, including 3 in big league debut

I don't see how this adds up to needing more AAA time...He was poised...Showed good stuff, albeit inconsistent command but he was 21 years old. He looked like he belonged there. He had some bad peripherals, like Olson and Penn did but he never looked shell shocked either. He never seemed to get down on himself.

There is nothing he can do in AAA...It makes no sense to send him there unless he is hurt or just looks so out of whack in ST that you have to send him back.

Other than that, he should be here and he shouldn't have to fight tooth and nail for the job either.

And, on top of that, he shouldn't have to wait for his turn for a few months(at least) because the Orioles felt they needed another vet starter.

IMO this is the reason he belongs...he'll learn more up here. Besides that, at 21, a few more AAA starts would not be horrible.

[Tony-OH]

Lots of talk about him here lately...Let's look back at his season of last year, both minors and majors:

AAA:

-18 starts

-96.2 IP

-7 of his last 8 starts went 6 IP or more

-9.22 K rate

-2.42 K rate

-3.8:1 K/bb ratio

-.46 HR rate

-gave up less than a hit per IP

MLB:

-12 starts

-6 of his twelve starts went 6 or more IP

-He had another 4 starts where he went at least 5 IP

-Only his first start(4.2 IP) and his last start(2 IP) did he fail to at least go 5

-BB rate was 3.32...Not too bad

- K rate was 5.4...definitely below average

- HR rate was awful..averaged 2 per 9 IP but 6 were in 2 starts, including 3 in big league debut

I don't see how this adds up to needing more AAA time...He was poised...Showed good stuff, albeit inconsistent command but he was 21 years old. He looked like he belonged there. He had some bad peripherals, like Olson and Penn did but he never looked shell shocked either. He never seemed to get down on himself.

There is nothing he can do in AAA...It makes no sense to send him there unless he is hurt or just looks so out of whack in ST that you have to send him back.

Other than that, he should be here and he shouldn't have to fight tooth and nail for the job either.

And, on top of that, he shouldn't have to wait for his turn for a few months(at least) because the Orioles felt they needed another vet starter.

I tend to agree with you, especially considering the other candidates don't exactly get you all warm and fuzzy inside. At the same time, I agree with the Orioles that he needs to pitch well this spring to make the team. He didn't pitch well enough last year at the big league level to have anything handed to him this spring. He's the youngest guy in the battle for the 5th starters spot so it won't hurt him if he goes back down, but if he pitches well this spring, it's his spot IMHO.

[Stacey]

SG I'm not trying to mess with you, honestly, but isn't this basically the exact same thing as in this thread that you also started?

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92898

[Moose Milligan]

I tend to agree with you, especially considering the other candidates don't exactly get you all warm and fuzzy inside. At the same time, I agree with the Orioles that he needs to pitch well this spring to make the team. He didn't pitch well enough last year at the big league level to have anything handed to him this spring. He's the youngest guy in the battle for the 5th starters spot so it won't hurt him if he goes back down, but if he pitches well this spring, it's his spot IMHO.

This is how I feel. He didn't show a whole hell of a lot to make me think he should just be handed a spot for 2010.

[adamwolff11]

Unless Tillman is downright poor in ST, I think he will be the 5th starter. Not that this would be the reason, but at the FanFest, it was Wieters, Reimold, Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman up for the Q&A together. To me that looked like, "Hey. This is our young core. They all reached the majors in one season, they're here to stay and win ballgames." I would think they would want Chris to feel apart of that group. If you "give" him a spot out of spring training, it's not like he still doesn't have a hell of a lot to prove. He hasn't struggled much with the game of baseball in his life, and he did last season. He's got plenty to prove. He's already proven he can dominate AAA. In all honesty it'd probably be more advantagous to put him in the bullpen. He should be our 5th starter barring something incredibly unimpressive in ST.

[Frobby]

I have made this point a few times, but Tillman had by far the most AAA innings of any of our pitchers who debuted in 2009. He showed more potential than either Hernandez or Berken in his major league performances IMO (though his stats were similar to Hernandez's). I see no reason to start him in AAA unless he absolutely stinks this spring, which I very much doubt.

I also think that, after four months of offseason, we've all run out of things to say. This subject has been discussed to death. So has everything else. Get those pitchers and catchers down to Sarasota, already!

[Sports Guy]

The idea that guys like Tillman and Pie will/should get their oppurtunities because of injuries and/or poor performance is so poor. They shouldn't need that to happen.

People are so wrapped up in the win total that they aren't looking at the big picture...and besides, the Orioles are better with the young guys than the vets anyway.

Tillman had a 4.50 ERA before his last 2 starts and it was 4.71 before his last start.

I felt the Orioles should have shut Tillman down sooner and those last 2 starts, where he struggled, may have shown me(and many many others) to be right.

Its hard for me to agree with Tony when he said:

He didn't pitch well enough last year at the big league level to have anything handed to him this spring

I just disagree with this...He was pitching like a 4/5 starter...as a 21 year old and he ended up with a poor ERA because the Orioles didn't shut him down early enough.

I think people get this idea in their heads that these guys need to come up here right away and be very good players, whether they are pitchers or hitters.

There is an adjustment period..they are going to struggle from time to time, especially at the end of the year, pitching more innings than they have ever pitched and pitching later in the season than they have ever pitched before.